“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” – Niels Bohr
I can’t testify as to why people might read this blog, but at least part of my motivation for writing it is the presumption that I have acquired a combination of skill, experience and knowledge that justifies me telling the world what I think. It is therefore sobering, but frankly welcome anyway, when real life trips me up in my smugness by doing the opposite of what I expected to happen. And therein lies the moral I think; I am indeed qualified to comment on what has happened in the past or what is occurring in front of me. But when it comes to predicting the future I am as clueless as everyone else.
And I am genuinely grateful for being surprised because, let’s face it, the world would be a boring place if everything panned out as anticipated. Not to mention the obvious point that if every Private Equity investment met or exceeded its business plan then they would never fire the Finance Director and there would be no jobs for Graham. So because, as the Buddha said, “chaos is inherent in all compounded things” I hereby renounce soothsaying and apologise for ever having dabbled in the first place.
“To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect.” – Oscar Wilde
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